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Creating Generational Legacies

Friday, July 22, 2016

Education for the Real World: 20 Percent Time Projects

By Esther Wojcicki and Lord Jim Knight, I4j Leadership Forum

We are  suggesting “20 Percent Time”, one day in the school week when students can work on a project of their choice, like the Google 20 Percent Time which gave rise to one of the most creative companies on the planet.  


Main Reason
For more than twenty years, we have been trying to change education through the use of digital tools and to tie education to the job market.   In fact, we have had little success. Our test scores are stagnant and we have millions of unfilled jobs because people don’t have the required skills.  Technology has not proven to be the silver bullet we had hoped for.

We continue to focus on teaching to the test to rectify the situation. Even the new federal policy of Every Child Succeeds Act focuses on testing but this has not provided us with the kind of workers we need. We see the same focus in the UK, and the same poor outcomes.  

The main difference between the classroom today and the classroom of  20 years ago is that the worksheets are now online and there may be an accompanying video, but it is still lecture based.  Today the lectures are online….see the Flipped Classroom pedagogy.   Research shows that people do not learn from lecture.  They learn about the idea but they do not learn the skill.  Learning takes place from peer to peer interaction and from doing. Employers are looking for people with tech skills, critical thinking skills, communication skills, and innovation skills. Students don’t get these skills through memorization or lecture. They get them through hands on authentic projects based on the real world.

Policy Sought and Rationale
We are  proposing to change the way we, citizens of the world,  see the school week. We are  proposing that the Secretary of Education, the Future Ready School program, the U.S. Congress and the Parliament in the UK suggest one day per week or 20 percent of the time when students can work on projects of their choice and apply the learning they get in the other 80% of the school week.  Instead of having five days of lecture and worksheets, have four days.  

Each state, district, and school should decide independently what application of 20% time works best for them. Community members need to know that learning takes place by doing.  This may not need to be a requirement. It is simply understanding what works in education and what learning really is. More than 100 years ago, education philosopher John Dewey said people learn by doing; it is time we followed this pedagogy.   In order to do so, teachers and school districts just need to have the permission to change the way they see learning.  They need to have permisson to change the way the classroom is structured….for just a small percentage of time to give students some exposure to authentic real world projects.   A program like this would give students time to use computers and digital tools in the learning process instead of just in the memorization process or the testing process.

Memorization is not learning; it is just memorization.  It is not thinking.   The OECD ranking by country shows both the US and the UK in the top four countries for memorisation in school, but relatively low for elaboration - deep learning and critical thinking.

We are  suggesting 20 Percent Time...like the Google 20 Percent Time which gave rise to one of the most creative companies on the planet.  Even if employees don’t participate, just knowing that they could participate, gives them a psychological sense of empowerment.

In their 20 PercentTime, students can work on a project of their choice supported by the school and the teachers.  This teaches student the skills employers are seeking:  communication, collaboration, creativity and critical thinking.  Students can design apps, work on gardening, develop a new toy, build a new website, game design,  write blogs, set up a workshop, do a group art project….or anything that they are interested in (within reason, of course).  Teachers still have 80% of the time to teach in the traditional manner but now students have 20% of the time to work on projects they care about related to the real world.   It needs to be in the school day and not after school because many low income students do not have time after school.  They too need to have this opportunity to be creative and be engaged in their learning.

Having a project increases engagement, increases learning, and increases creative thinking and provides the kind of worker that the we need today. We need education for the real world, education that connects to problems that we face as a planet.   The 20 Percent idea would build this kind of education into the curriculum and ensure that all students have this opportunity to create.   

Studies show that AP exams do not produce the kind of learning that transfers to the real world and does not have a positive impact on college performance.  However making learning engaging and social improves attainment scores and subsequent performance.

Role of the School and Government

The school can help provide the structure and resources for the 20 Percent Time. They can provide a platform where teachers and students share ideas.  They can support teachers creativity.  This is vital because today teachers are very concerned with test scores and teaching to the test and covering all the  material for the year.  In many cases, less is more learning.

Teachers need permission to be creative one day per week and this creativity will be passed on to their students.  The program will need teacher professional development to restore professional confidence in how to coach learning through creativity. It is a simple idea that can easily scale so that we can produce workers that employers want to hire and employees who can help solve issues facing the planet.


Technology giving birth to 4th tech revolution - enlightenment period

Lucien Tarnowski - spoke at the entrepreneurial summit in Poland and came up with some pearlers....

watch the video - having a place to share ideas - matters


Having a place/hub of Innovation matters!!!

Based on History and previous enlightenments - place mattered.

It's the enlightenment periods that defined our world 
- Aristotle - Athens
- Medici - Milan
- Shakespeare - uk 
- Davinci and Michelangelo in Italy
-  Freud - Paris in 20s
- Berlin - Mozart , Bach 
- Silicon Valley - the founders of Paypal went on to create Tesla, Facebook, Linkedin , google etc 

These people 
- new each other 
- collaborated with each other
- fed off each other, 
- pushing each other to break new boundaries 

The people were /are like you and me - and went on to change the world 

Place matters - and the creation of an epicentre of innovation is a very strategic move for any city wanting to be a thought leader! 

SYDNEY - take note - eur 4b being invested in Poland to build a startup hub!

Countries cities and companies are all living and dying by their ability to attract retain and maintain their talent.

Recognising and Unleashing Human Capital

Human capital is the worlds most wasted resource - we have not even begun to utilise the power of our minds and collective potential


  • Humans have limitless potential - how do we unleash it?
  • What is the process and systems to make this happen? 
  • Is it creation of tribes / groups/ masterminds?
  • Is it about creating collaboration mechanisms? 
  • Is it about Sharing stories and Ideas ?

The gap of what we do to what we could do - has and can continue to be enhanced dramatically by innovation and technology. 

Human capital

  •  invest in it
  •  nurture it 
  •  encourage it

There are many rough diamonds - due to circumstance or mindset - they may never be able to achieve what hey could!

How do we develop the ecosystem to nurture this untapped talent of human potential? How can we do this using infrastructure that has already been built, and just needs to be deployed?

Can Councils in regional towns play a vital role in igniting innovation in their area?

  • enabling collaboration between big business and start-ups 
  • connecting unemployes to startups and educational institutions
  • providing cheap rent for incubators 
  • providing a Crowdsourcing facility so residents can invest in their towns startups (maybe with government backed security based on specific criteria


The formal education system is broken -
It was created to feed the processes of the Industrial Age - it was designed as a conveyer belt to create and prepare humans to do stuff on an assembly line - to act like a machine - to learn processes that can be done by machines.


  • Maths - we learned slide rule - Soh Cah toa, logic.
  • We don't need to learn how an engine works to drive a car! 

The current education system needs to change - 

There needs to be more focus on communication, soft skills, using machines, collaborating and community

- Educating is what people do to you
- Learning is what you do to yourself

People need to become lifelong learners

The information explosion

We are seeing a Bite Bang - an information explosion 

Knowledge is a commodity accessible by everyone.... dont spend time on privacy - it doesnt exist... become anonymous by being a part of the grid! 

We are in Information overload - the world is doubling in info every 3 years vs every 100 years and by 2020 - doubling info every 3 months 

What we learn at school and university becomes redundant - quickly!! 
- we need to learn to be lifelong learners 
- we need to learn to collaborate.

Collaboration is the number 1 currency 

Our ability to tap into our collective wisdom will take us to that next level!

Over the past centuries, we have been great a creating silos - manifesting in different countries and borders - this needs to change - it's about unconditional collaboration.

We need to create an Ecosystem where sharing knowledge is power .

Changing from 
Knowledge is power - We were driven by individualism
to 
sharing knowledge is power - We need to be driven by community

It matters where you are located 

How can we create that talent hub!!! 
- That place that draws talent
- That creates innovation
- That feeds off each other
- That collaborates

Together we can build this collective potential opportunity - to change lives for the better  


This video and thought process reminds me of The Goal - by Eli Goldratt - the theory of constraints - which shows that we are only as strong as our weakest link

As a community - let's build up our weakest link - so we all can surge from strength to strength

I am really excited about bulding www.bbg.business - building these communities feels right!!




Innovation isn't just for inner city hipsters

 Great article in smh today - below article has been inspired by Tony Featherstone 





"Innovation is a lot more than inner-city hipsters who try to build the next great app while drinking soy lattes at trendy warehouses" writes Tony Featherstone 
 Many Regional Australian towns are in distress - and there is an urgent need to develop new industries or invigorate old ones as the new economy unfolds.
Their needs to be an innovation focus on regional entrepreneurship, local government collaboration and small business, and Turnbulls appointment of the new Federal Minister for Small Business, Michael McCormack is genius ! 
A Small Business Minister with country connections! My view is that he should also take on the portfolio of innovation, AusTrade and AusIndustry  - they all go hand in hand! 
 The Innovation agenda should be used as a tool to address today's problems: 
- job losses in manufacturing and mining,
 - high youth unemployment 
and 
- stagnating regional economies, for example.
Innovation is a process to bring groups together, encourage collaboration and creativity, and link emerging enterprises with established industries.
Let's balance the capital-city version of innovation with policy that: 
  • Helps develop vibrant regional entrepreneurship ecosystems that create thriving clusters of new and established business activity in country areas
     
  • Presents innovation as a process to help regional economies transition from the decline in manufacturing and other traditional industries, to higher-growth sectors
     
  • Creates the option of self-employment for young people in regional areas who cannot find full-time work
     
  • Reverses the brain drain as bright young 20-somethings are forced to move to capital cities to start ventures or work for others
     
  • Makes regional areas great places to live AND work, creating social inclusion for young people and more harmonious communities
     
  • Has real benefits for capital cities. Creating vibrant regional innovation hubs could encourage urban entrepreneurs to move to areas that are close to capital cities. That would help de-centralise population growth away from capital cities, as regional businesses grow and create jobs
     
  • Helps develop a stronger national entrepreneurship ecosystem by giving start-ups that are struggling with scarce resources greater options to work in lower-cost regional areas.
How can we do this using existing infrastructure?
We should take a leaf out of the massively successful Uber - ( listened to a great talk at an Amcham lunch yesterday) (thanks Niels) .
How can we utilise existing assets and existing infrastructure to ignite innovation in regional Australia? 
Australia has already built a massive infrastructure built around Councils.
How can Councils spark the drive for communities to build on their strengths (which is invariably there people) and actively support innovation and entrepreneurship 
Councils in Ipswich, the Sunshine Coast, the northern suburbs of Adelaide and north Queensland, to name a few, understand innovation's potential to invigorate their economies and have done some cool things , such as 
- implementing smart-city technologies, planning and processes; 
- launching co-working spaces for start-ups; and 
- creating entrepreneurship ecosystems.
Other councils should follow their lead and federal and state governments can help by framing a co-ordinated agenda – and funding – for regional innovation and entrepreneurship.
Imagine 
 Imagine having a goal for your local  town to be an  innovation hotspot  that is linked to your capital-city entrepreneurship ecosystem and university, rage or learning institution!
- Imagine if your local town had a simple, low-cost co-working spaces for start-up ventures - supported by mentors, existing businesses and greys, aligning them with educational institutions and VET providers - 
(How many government owned buildings/ spaces  are unlet or underutilised? The infrastructure is there !!)
- Imagine if your local Council had a  Crowdfunding Council platform where residents fund local ventures with funding to start-ups in their area and perhaps take equity in some. 
- Imagine if those loans would be Government Gauranteed  if it  was supported by an accreditted mentor. (they do this in USA.)
The real opportunity is linking bright young regional start-ups with established businesses
How can councils create collisions of innovation between the new and old that drive entrepreneurship?
There's never been a better time. 
A focus on a co-ordinated regional innovation is good policy AND politics.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Car sharing with city parking

How car-sharing is already helping cities with their transit issues

July 19
 
WASHINGTON

There's a promising fix for any city with transportation issues -- and car ownership has nothing to do with it.

A new study found that cities that turn to a flexible type of car-sharing stand to benefit from less pollution, less traffic and more parking.

Researchers at the University of California-Berkeley's Transportation Sustainability Research Center focused on the impact of car2go, which is different from car services like Zipcar and GM's (GM) Maven. With car2go, drivers paying a one-time $35 membership fee and can rent a vehicle parked on a nearby public street and leave it elsewhere in the city. There's no need to reserve a vehicle ahead of time, or return it to a designated parking lot. Car2go strikes deals with local governments so that its cars can be parked in public spots.

Sunday, July 10, 2016

A call for retraining

new technology and robotics is not a death knell for workers but it is a clarion call for re-training and continuing education. Innovation creates efficiency and new products/services and concomitant new work. There will always be a cohort that has trouble making the transition and we need safety nets for that.
 
Vint Cerf

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Doing vs Being

This conversation of Automation - and the worry that innovation and automation is detrimental to the human race does not sit well with me! Something needs to change!!!

is it bad to automate processes that could potentially replace millions of jobs as we know it? Is it bad to reward people in a different way? 

Doing vs being


We are not human doings , we are human beings!

If robots AI and technology are taking jobs, because they can do things faster - this can only be a good thing - it gives the humans more time to be.

Being shouldn't be about randomly doing for wage. It should be about doing to add value to your fellow human being and your environment.

Human beings ( and indeed many other species) have thrived over the centuries and millennia by being in tribes ( or communities) , and creating structure, usually being governed by a strong leader. 

The tribe has developed by working as a team - with the leader allocating functions for survival and growth. 

The way this has been done in the last Millenia is through Economics. 

A system of exchange, giving the human a reward for doing (providing a service or a product ) , so they can be, using "fun vouchers" (money) as a common currency.

As humans have evolved and innovated, they have developed tools, that can do the doing, so they can get more fun vouchers, so they can do more being.

So, if a tribes doing has been automated, enabling their tribe to do more being, giving them  more fun vouchers, enabling them to be rather than do - how can this be a bad thing? 

Humans need a sense of usefulness that has in the last few hundred years been supplied by jobs - but why does adding value and feeling useful have to be related to earning fun vouchers ? 

Sunday, July 3, 2016

It's all about lifelong learning

From the legendary Heather Macgowan

The end state of being “educated” is no longer enough. The future of work is learning agility, learning must be part of work









The future is arriving

From 14j contributor Herman Gyr:-

I just returned from Switzerland where I got to be part of history --- very much related to this thread's topics. The Swiss Postal Service's PostAuto inaugurated the world's first autonomous public transportation service in the city of Sion, Switzerland. It was a great honor and treat for me to be invited to this special event, and to get to ride this remarkable vehicle. This project represents the culmination of great vision, committed leadership and extraordinary collaboration among a wide range of interests and capabilities (the Post, the City of Sion, EPFL, politicians, regulators, start-ups). Truly inspiring! Check out the video: https://www.bluewin.ch/de/news/wirtschaft---boerse/2016/6/23/in-sitten-rollen-ab-sofort-autonome-busse-durch-di.html Yep, that's me sitting on the thing at 0:10 to 0:16

As part of a strategic blueprinting session in 2013 with PostAuto (the largest bus service in Switzerland) I had offered the following provocative mock-up to stimulate considerations about potential participation in the autonomous mobility space. They decided to go for it, and came up with what's shown on bottom. It's coming fast now --- in fact, it's already here!

image2.PNG

Tune in:- Conversation on Automation

Whitehouse Simine Leiro is speaking to i4j member Robin Chase on Automation and is calling for questions to be answered 
Summary: 
Wondering how driverless cars or chatbot lawyers will change the ways we work and live? Join us for a LIVE White House Conversation on automation.

You’ve seen photos of self-driving cars zooming down California highways and read about lawyers that are actually chatbots. These are some of our first encounters with automation and artificial intelligence (AI). And if you’re wondering how these types of technology will change the ways we work and live, you’re not alone.

There's no shortage of predictions. Depending on who's talking, it will be the source of tremendous opportunity or a challenge to even our most basic institutions. In any event, it's no longer just the stuff of science fiction. Our growing reliance on automation implies some big public policy questions. Some that we're already grappling with, and others we'll need to tackle in the coming years.

On Tuesday, July 5, White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough will host a conversation with Robin Chase, transportation entrepreneur and author, and Martin Ford, author and futurist, to help shed some light on these issues. They’ll discuss and debate the nuanced aspects of automation, from what it means for jobs to laws to how we spend our days.

Announcing: a White House Conversation on Automation

In addition to the White House Facebook page, you can watch this conversation LIVE on Business Insider’s and Futurism’s pages, on Tuesday at 1:15PM EDT. You can also get ready for the conversation by checking out more information about automation from Futurism

Have a question about automation that you’d like to hear in the conversation? You can join the discussion by submitting your question below.

* Required Field

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

GES 2016 takeouts

Jeff Hoffman on outcomes of GES 2016

I'll add my two cents as well.  I judged the international pitch competition for GIST (the State Department program for Global Innovation through Science and Technology) at GES and also did several days of mentoring with the international entrepreneurs for GES+ and for GEN (Global Entrepreneurship Network) where I serve as a board member.  We had entrepreneurs from 140 countries compete for cash in a pitch competition, and I worked with around 30 of those countries personally.  

My key takeaways are these:

1.  The democracy of information (i.e. the internet) is enabling new entrepreneurs from emerging nations to launch companies and create impact in ways they never could before because they DIDN'T KNOW HOW.  With tools like Coursera, TED talks, SlideShare, and so many others, they are learning how to launch and compete.  This is great news for the whole planet.

2.  Despite the fact that we held GES in Silicon Valley and all of the big keynote speakers were internet company CEOs, the focus on important offline innovation in such areas as agriculture, medicine, home building, drinking water, and more was exciting to see this year.  We have to teach people that the word "entrepreneurs" simply means "problem solver", not "website or app developer".

3.  The key to success for global entrepreneurship is CONNECTIVITY.  These people need help, and building networks of people to connect to each other and help each other is more important than it has ever been.  We can all be part of this solution.

Thanks,
Jeff

On Wed, Jun 29, 2016 at 12:52 PM, Robert Cohen <bcohen@bway.net> wrote:

Jeff,

 

I agree with you on your optimism. I find your comments are enormously interesting. These advances might have a far more positive impact on economic development than many expect.

 

Jeff

I would love to get them to interact with I4J.  The media is missing this "movement" because they only cover the big, Silicon Valley funded startups and sexy tech companies.  They don't get down in the dirt where the action is, which is where I have spent the last three years.

Maybe we get a globally diverse small group of these entrepreneurs on a Zoom chat or Google Hangout where we can hear their thoughts, ask what they need, and have a live Q&A?


Might there be a way to help these people interact with I4J?

 

Perhaps Philip and Byron could add some of their reaction to the GES.

 

Bob

 


Monday, June 27, 2016

Humane Management


David Nordfors :- 
Say hello to JC Spender and David Hurst, who are new to this forum. We had a great discussion just now about the future of the firm and management. JC says judgement weighs more than decisions and David says renewal is the only maintenance that works (did I get that right?). Richard Straub’s Drucker Forum 2015  was about claiming our humanity while managing in the digital age. Steve has been attacking the inhuman corporate philosophy and Curt has demonstrated in real life how to make an innovative company successful by treating people like human beings.

So why isn’t it getting better by now? Or is it getting better?
And can the gig economy be helpful in some waY

What do you think?

/D

From Curt

First welcome. 

David, that is a great question.  Why isn't it getting better in spite of all that has been tried.  The NAE study I am on to make recommendations about US RD&I policy is asking the same question. 

Obviously a complicated question but in an exponential world if you want to win you need a faster exponential.  The only one I know of is being better at innovation--in the short term.  Long term might that make things worse. 

We are watching in real time tens of millions of jobs go away: driverless cars and trucks, automated toll takers, answering services, bank tellers, manufacturing workers, etc.  If it is bad for us imagine developing countries where these are the bootstrapping jobs to an advanced economy.

From JC Spender 
Reminds me of Ha-Joon Chang’s fine book:

https://www.amazon.com/Kicking-Away-Ladder-Development-Perspective/dp/1843310279/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1467050807&sr=8-1&keywords=Kicking+Away+the+Ladder%3A+Development+Strategy+in+Historical+Perspective

if we say new technology is kicking away the traditional ladders to economic advancement in developing countries.  Instead of outsourcing to, say, Bangladesh, we are going to be outsourcing to sheds full of automata.  Though my HBR piece on AI applies.

Regards, JC


Hi Curt and JC 

Curt, innovation is the key and exponential economy is how the old replaces the new. JC, you make the point that innovation is about replacing people. 

How is the state of innovation for humane management? Who are the leaders in this and is there policy for supporting it?

/D

@tammychan

On Mon, Jun 27, 2016 at 3:11 PM, CurtCarlson <curt@practiceofinnovation.com> wrote:
Another great question.  All over but not as a movement yet.  In my experience you find them mostly in university programs giving students new skills.  And of course not all innovation is about replacing people

The problems start at the top.

See for instance President Obama's interview in the currrent Bloomberg Businessweek: 
"There are a number of banking CEOs, including somebody like a Jamie Dimon, who I think are smart and are outstanding businesspeople, but they have different roles to play. Their job is to serve their shareholders, maximize profits..."
http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-obama-anti-business-president/

Wrong!

Time that President Obama read Peter Drucker: "There is only one valid purpose of a business, to create a customer." (1954).

Steve Denning
Forbes blog: http://blogs.forbes.com/stevedenning/ 

Curt

Right.  We call getting this right the “Value Balance.”  Yes it starts with the customer (what else could it be?) but there must also be an appropriate value proposition for the shareholders, employees, the company, and the community. “Either or” thinking gets people in trouble.  It is “and.”  They all must be in balance.  So much in life is “and."

Ivan Kaye

Peter Druckers reason for a business - "There is only one valid purpose of a business, to create a customer." (1954).

Obama's role of a CEO - "Their job is to serve their shareholders, maximize profits..."

I reckon that if the CEO guides his team to live by your pulse and values - and you have a set of behaviours that guide you, the customers will come and so will the profits!

- Our pulse.... To creat generational legacies
- How - by giving clear objective advice
- The objective - to become your indispensable business partner
- Our behaviours we strive for:- TREAT Trust, Respect, Energetic, Adventurous and Team First!
- Our team is measured by how they live up to the required behaviours! 

It seems simple but has taken us 2 years to define and work towards! 

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Man on moon says "good luck mr Gorsky... Who Is Mr. Gorsky?

Jewish Humour: Who Is Mr. Gorsky?: IN CASE YOU DIDN'T ALREADY KNOW THIS LITTLE TIDBIT OF TRIVIA. ON JULY 20, 1969, AS COMMANDER OF THE APOLLO 11 LUNAR MODULE, NEIL ARMSTRO...


Sunday, June 19, 2016

FUTURE PREDICTIONS:

Interesting article shared by a golf buddy - quite nervous about the future! 

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming.

Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again? Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence
Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. 

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous Cars: 
In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. 

You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.

Most car companies may become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance Companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars won’t become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. 

Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health
There will be companies that will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.

3D printing: 
The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large number of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Business Opportunities
If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture
There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Agroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups that will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.

Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.

Longevity
Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

Education
The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.

Robert M. Goldman MD, PhD, DO, FAASP
www.DrBobGoldman.com
World Chairman-International Medical Commission
Co-Founder & Chairman of the Board-A4M
Founder & Chairman-International Sports Hall of Fame
Co-Founder & Chairman-World Academy of Anti-Aging Medicine
President Emeritus-National Academy of Sports Medicine (NASM)
Chairman-U.S. Sports Academy’s Board of Visitors

Saturday, June 18, 2016

Global Entrepreneutial Summit 22-24 June - in Palo Alto

On June 22-24, entrepreneurs and leaders are coming together in Silicon Valley to learn, connect, and build for the future of entrepreneurship around the globe. We’ll be selecting submissions to feature at the Global Entrepreneurship Summit and on Google for Entrepreneurs’ social channels.

Sunday, June 12, 2016

Staying lucky - Australia can

Australia has a fine history of invention and innovation, with ideas ranging from the stump jump plough and Hills hoist through to Jira , Wireless ,the flight data recorder and Cochlear ear implants change the world.

(Watch this space re the bionic Eye - follow Nigel Lovell)

Cochlear itself forms the centre of an Australian hearing technology hub at Macquarie University which brings together university researchers, private sector R&D and some of the world’s best medical specialists to form a globally competitive centre of excellence. We can do great things.

Remaining lucky in the 21st Century is going to take more than riding on the back of sheep, the end of coal train or surfing the wave of easy credit that crashed over our economy in the 25 years after 1990. 

We are going to have to be (and indeed we are smart, canny and adventurous.

Australians have shown they can grasp opportunities and with government policies that favour innovation over speculation, investment over ticket clipping, a business community that pulls its weight in research and a community that values education at all levels we can do it.

So yes, Innovation can save Australia but we as a nation have to be prepared to work at it and change many of our current ways of thinking.

(Commentary inspired from www.paulwallbank.com)