Sunday, March 22, 2020
Should we keep things in perspective?
Saturday, March 21, 2020
An excellent site for data on the virus
Thursday, March 19, 2020
Summary of McKinsey Report on Economic Impact - as of March 18
The financial system suffers significant distress,
but a full-scale banking crisis is averted
because of banks’ strong capitalization and the macroprudential supervision now in place.
Fiscal and monetary-policy responses prove insufficient to break the downward spiral.
The global economic impact is severe, approaching the global financial crisis of 2008–09. GDP contracts significantly in most major economies in 2020, and recovery begins only in Q2 2021.
The coronavirus crisis is a story with an unclear ending. What is clear is that the human impact
is already tragic, and that companies have an imperative to act immediately to protect their employees, address business challenges and risks, and help to mitigate the outbreak in whatever ways they can.
Here are some interesting stats from China....
1. Disease causes fatalities mainly to population 70 plus
2. Increase Testing seems to have a direct result in reducing cases of the virus
3. Major Countries affected outside China are Iran , Otaly and South Korea
4. Significant economic effects on consumer spending, retail sales, car sales, smartphones, hotel occupancy, tourism - no company remains unaffected .
Positive - reduced pollution
Friday, March 6, 2020
Could Coronavirus be the black swan of 2020 ?
- Cisco - took advantage of black Monday in 1987.
- Google and PayPal negotiated their journey after the Dotcom crash
- Airbnb , Square and Stripe were founded in the GFC.
Challenges focus the mind - and provide fertile ground for creativity and innovation .
“what may be a black swan surprise for a turkey is not a black swan surprise to its butcher; hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey" by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white"
- Have enough cash! Have enough access to money to ride out the tough period (toilet paper?) - and have enough access to money or “currency” to make the great acquisitions. Remember the core principal that my grandmother taught me - buy low and sell high!!! Seize opportunities when your competitors have been battered! In a downturn - revenue and cash levels fall faster in a recession
- Be prepared to change - be adaptable - as Darwin said - those who survive “are not the strongest or the most intelligent , but the most adaptable to change.
- Face facts - False optimism can be destructive - face the facts and take decisive action. Look at your overheads, Capex and budgets and reassess.
Thursday, March 5, 2020
The surprising nation that leads the world in innovation
NAB writes a fantastic article on the importance of innovation after interviewing Dr Massimo Garbuio, Associate Professor in Entrepreneurship at the University of Sydney.
I am delighted that this validates the “NextTech Revolution” - which is about vocational education and training being a key platform for retaining your team, building building a strong culture, encouraging innovation and spurring growth.
Switzerland has topped world innovation for nine years running and Australia has slipped from 17th in 2015 to 22nd on the Global Innovation list.
Australia has always punched above its weight - with inventions such as the Black box flight recorders, spray-on skin, wifi and many others it can lay claim to.
Is Australia’s pipeline of innovation drying up?
Switzerland has Europe’s highest number of patent applications relative to population size, with an impressive record of bringing innovative products to market.
It invests heavily in innovation, particularly start-ups and new technologies – over 300 start-ups are founded each year.
It has World-class Research and Development (R&D) establishments collaborating with educational institutions and universities, and there’s also a focus on the green economy including clean technologies and power production.
So what can we learn from Switzerland ?
5 key factors says Dr Massimo Garbuio,
1. Become a magnet for talent
Switzerland is well-placed to attract and retain talent. The pay is good, there is a good quality of life and their companies nurture its talent.
As the war for talent continues to heat up globally, highly-skilled people are getting harder to find.
Australian businesses could benefit by thinking ahead – recruiting people with potential then providing the education and training they need to develop critical skills. This could be the key to building a loyal team of innovators.
Recruit , Train and Retain is the mantra for NextTech
HBR Talks about the 6 habits of talent management
https://hbr.org/2011/01/the-six-habits-of-a-talent-mag
Summarised below
Search Results
Featured snippet from the web
- Get to know the most talented individuals early on, when you don't need them. ...
- Create and manage the right expectations. ...
- Look at their hearts — and not just their smarts. ...
- Cultivate them over time. ...
- On-board them thoughtfully. ...
- Mentor them for their success.
2. Make the most of education
Switzerland has built a strong educational foundation and, importantly, a robust apprenticeship system. Nearly two-thirds of young people pursue a vocational program, and those who gain a diploma or certificate can take on professional education and training to prepare them for highly technical roles.
“Many will be equipped to help translate academic research into practical applications,” Garbuio says. “This may be the key to unlocking product and service innovation.”
Global research has found that businesses that invest more in their people’s training have more engaged staff, and that organisations with more engaged staff deliver better financial results.
What’s more, according to LinkedIn’s 2018 Workforce Learning Report, 93 per cent of employees would stay at a company longer if it invested in their careers.
Consider the learning and development opportunities currently on offer in your organisation or team.
Is there more that could be done to formalise the offering, communicate it and increase your people’s learning?
3. Take risks
There’s a chance that Australia is being hampered by its own good fortune.
“I once heard that resource-rich countries tend to be quite risk averse,” says Garbuio. “After doing my own research in this area I believe that’s true.
I think that countries like Israel, Sweden and Switzerland, with few natural resources to fall back on, are more prepared to take the kinds of risks that drive innovation.”
The latest NAB Australian Business Innovation Index 2019, which measures how businesses are doing things differently, more quickly or more cost efficiently, found that Australian business leaders have become even less willing to take risks and explore new ideas in the face of tougher economic conditions.
Heightened uncertainty around global trade tensions and growth is also weighing heavily on businesses as they focus more on shorter-term cost objectives and outcomes.
“Even at a larger or more established corporate level, many Australian businesses are excessively focused on the short term,” says Garbuio.
3. Embrace failure
Garbuio believes that a cultural stigma attached to failure is another barrier to innovation.
“Failure still isn’t appreciated as a learning mechanism,” he says. “It’s getting better, but we are still a long way from Silicon Valley, Israel and some European countries.”
He is also concerned that management and boards tend to focus on compliance at the expense of big ideas and the long-term growth of companies for the benefit of societies at large.
“There has to be a balance of course – you can’t be all innovation and no compliance,” he says. “But, overall, there is too little of the former and too much of the latter.”
4. Be willing to collaborate
Another theme to emerge is the importance of collaboration.
One of our goals is to encourage more collaboration in Australia - bringing governments, academia and industry coming together to collaborate , learn and grow!
Just get them in a room - says Ivan Kaye founder of BBG
It’s about the 5Cs“Connection, collaboration , contribution - do those continuously and you will build a connected collaborative community!”
Universities Australia Chair Professor Margaret Gardner has made it clear that, by tapping into university talent, business can source new ideas, get the jump on early stage research and cut the time it takes to bring new products to market.
And modelling by Cadence Economics for Universities Australia released in 2018 demonstrated that the 16,000 companies already partnering with universities derive $10.6 billion in revenue from their collaborations.
5. Positive intentions
The NAB Innovation Index found the outlook for innovation over the next 12 months is relatively positive, with around 40 per cent of businesses planning to invest more in innovation than they did in the past year.
The new Australian Business Growth Fund could support this ambition.
“It’s just been announced that the four major banks, plus Macquarie and HSBC, will contribute capital to a fund to help mid-sized SMEs access finance,” Loveridge says.
“This is a very encouraging initiative. It will boost other sources of growth capital in the marketplace by providing capability support for innovative and fast-growing companies.”
Tuesday, March 3, 2020
Waymo raises $2.25 billion - plans for 60% market share of Autonomous vehicles by 2030
Waymo, Google parent company Alphabet’s autonomous vehicles division, has just secured its first round of funding of $2.25 billion from the whose who of funds including
- Silver Lake,
- Canada Pension Plan Investment Board,
- Mubadala Investment Company (the sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi),
- Magna International,
- Andreessen Horowitz,
- auto retail giant AutoNation,
- and of course Alphabet itself.
It’s an initial close on the company’s first round of funding.
CEO of Waymo John Krafcik (formerly CEO of Hyundai) said that to build a successful business - collaboration is key - and that business is a team sport. “Waymo is delighted to bring to the team a bevy of financial investors who will bring decades of experience investing in and supporting successful technology companies building transformative products.”
The Vision
“to deploy “the Waymo Driver” around the world making our roads safer,
The state of play
Today
- headcount to 1,500 employees or “Waymonauts,”
- annual cost a around $1 billion, while its robo-taxi business — Waymo One — reportedly yields just hundreds of thousand dollars a year in revenue from its 600 vehicles to date,
- over 1,500 people are using its ride-hail autonomous taxis with 100,000 total rides since launching its rider programs in 2017.
History
2009 - Google tests autonomous cars equipped with lidar sensors, radar, cameras, and powerful onboard computers in San Francisco
2016 - Waymo launches in Phoenix doing a partnership deal with Lyft
2019 - Waymo app launches - look and feel not dissimilar to the UBER and Lyft app.
The Plan
2020 - short term plan - add up to 62,000 Chrysler Pacifica minivans to its fleet and has signed a deal with Jaguar Land Rover to equip 20,000 of the automaker’s Jaguar I-Pace electric SUVs with its system by 2020. (A few of the I-Paces are currently undergoing testing on public roads in San Francisco.)
2025-2030
According to marketing firm ABI, as many as 8 million driverless cars will be added to the road in 2025, and Research and Markets anticipates that there will be some 20 million autonomous cars in operation in the U.S. by 2030.
Waymo plans to dominate the driverless car market in the next decade, with over 60% market share - and the smart money clearly believes the narrative .
The technology
Later this year, Waymo plans to release its latest autonomous driving system — the fifth-generation Waymo Driver — featuring a new lidar sensor design that’s “breakthrough” in terms of cost-efficiency. The fifth-generation Driver will also boast revamped radars and vision systems, as well as “all-weather” capabilities including defrost and wiper elements and a “significant upgrade” in onboard compute power.
The competitors
Yandex, Tesla, Zoox, Aptiv, May Mobility, Pronto.ai, Aurora, Nuro, and GM’s Cruise Automation are among Waymo’s self-driving car competitors, to name just a few.
Daimler last summer obtained a permit from the Chinese government that allows it to test autonomous cars powered by Baidu’s Apollo platform on public roads in China.
Beijing-based Pony.ai, which has raised hundreds of millions in venture capital, launched a driverless taxi pilot in Irvine in October.
And startup Optimus Ride built out a small autonomous shuttle fleet in New York City, becoming the first to do so.
China is making a big push to catch up. Since December, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai have all given the green light for autonomous cars to start real-world testing on city roads
The People in the Game
It’s a small but growing industry - where talent is at a massive premium
Engineeers, Softwate developers and technicians with experience in this space can name their price!!
Here is a list of some of the players in the game
- John Krafcik - CEO of Waymo supported by Egon Durban - Co -CEO of Sver Lake
- Chris Urmson - CEO Aurora supporyed by Carle Eschenbach - sequoia representativ
- Sterling Anderson - ex Tesla
- Drew Bagne - ex Uber
- Anthony Levandowski - set up pronto - ex Uber exec - indicted for stealing Waymo technology
- Randell Iwasaki, executive director of Contra Costa Transportation Authority, which is trying to deploy both U.S. and foreign-made shuttles on public roads.
- Robert Falck - Einride CEO
- Don Burnette recently secured $40 million for their startup, Kodiak Robotics
- Edwin Olson of the University of Michigan
- Nidhi Kalra of the RAND Corporation —
- Huu-Hoi Tran, the head of KPMG’s automotive practice in China.
- Robin Li, Baidu’s chief executive, said autonomous cars would be on Chinese roads within three to five years
- And of course Elon Musk of Tesla
Self-driving trucks
Self driving trucks have always been the holy grail - and Waymo has clearly put its stake in the ground.
Chrysler Pacifica vans have been retrofitted with Waymo’s technology stack and is mapping roads ahead of driverless Peterbilt trucks as part of a project known as Waymo Via.
Waymo Via — formally announced today — focusses on “all forms of goods delivery.”
It encompasses both short- and long-haul delivery, from freight transported across interstates down to local delivery.
They have started mapping Los Angeles to study congestion and expanding testing to highways in Florida between Orlando, Tampa, Fort Myers, and Miami as it conducts self-driving truck pilots in the San Francisco Bay Area, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, and on Metro Phoenix freeways (as well as on the I-10 between Phoenix and Tucson).
In the Metro Pheonix area, the company is piloting autonomous vehicle package transportation between UPS Store locations and a local UPS sorting facility.
The market and value proposition of self driving trucks
6,700 units globally, totaling $54.23 billion saving the logistics and shipping industry $70 billion annually and boosting productivity by 30%.
The Pain
In 2018, the American Trucking Associates recognised a shortage of truck drivers - estimating that 50,000 more truckers were needed to meet demand, even after proposed U.S. Transportation Department screenings for sleep apnea were sidelined.
The Competition
- TuSimple raised $12 bbg 0m in September
- Pronto.ai - intrigue - CEO being sued for stealing Waymo secrets
- Aurora, the last of which attracted a $530 million investment at a valuation over $2 billion in February (led by Sequoia )
- Ike, a self-driving truck startup founded by former Apple, Google, Uber Advanced Technologies Group engineers that has raised $52 million,
- Einride. Swedish driverless car company
- Meanwhile, former Battery Ventures VP Paz Eshel and former Uber and Otto engineer Don Burnette recently secured $40 million for their startup, Kodiak Robotics.
- Embark — which integrates its driverless systems into semis and launched a pilot with Amazon to haul cargo
- Other autonomous truck solutions from incumbents like Daimler and Volvo.
The technology networks and infrastructure driving the technology
Monday, March 2, 2020
We may have to change the way we work
Global health emergencies, like Covid-19, are scary, disruptive, and confusing for everyone. could change the way we work!
“Disruption to everyday life may be severe,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, cautioned at a news conference Tuesday. “Schools could be closed, mass public gatherings suspended, and businesses forced to have employees work remotely.”
Business travel could decrease or come to a full stop.
You May have to work remotely - with Video conferencing being the main means of communication
Here is the inevitable post-crisis question:
“Why don’t we do this all the time?”
Cali Williams Yost, CEO and founder of Flex+Strategy Group/Work+Life Fit shares five steps to reconfigure your workforce
Acknowledge the possibility that all or part of your workforce may need to work remotely.
Gather a cross-functional team that includes business-line leaders, IT, HR, communications, and facilities to start to plan for different scenarios and optimize execution, should circumstances require a rapid response.
Map out jobs and tasks that could be affected.
Note which roles and duties:
1) Can be done, even partially, without a physical presence in the workplace,
2) Cannot be done, even somewhat, outside of the physical office, and
3) Not sure.
for those in the “not sure” column - experiment
CFO, CMO , Accountant , Marketing , Salesforce - do they need to be at work?
Make sure you have strong systems - where everything is documented and your team members can follow what is done for the client .
Audit available IT hardware and software, and close any gaps in access and adoption.
applications, such as video conferencing and other collaboration/communication platforms need to be state of the art.
Where you find gaps, provide training and opportunities for practice before people need to use them.
Real-time mastery is not optimal and is inefficient.
Identify devices owned by the organization that people could use and clarify acceptable “bring your own” phone and laptop options. Determine if there are any data-security issues to consider and how best to address them beforehand.
Set up a communications protocol in advance
This communications plan needs to outline: how to reach everybody (e.g., all contact information in one place, primary communication channels clarified — email, IM, Slack, teams etc.); how employees are expected to respond to customers; and how and when teams will coordinate and meet.
Identify ways to measure performance that could inform broader change.
Depending upon the outcomes, you may decide to continue certain aspects of the flexible response permanently.
For example, perhaps you cut business travel by 25% and substitute video conferencing.
You determine afterward that about 80% of those meetings were equally as effective virtually.
Therefore, a 20% decrease in business travel will continue, but this time as part of the organization’s sustainability strategy to cut carbon emissions.
And if you plan and nothing happens? Then, at minimum, you have an organized, flexible work disaster response ready the next time there’s a challenge to operational continuity, which chances are, there will be!!