Yuval Noah Harari: the world after coronavirus

Below is a summary - with a few questions 

This storm will pass, humankind will survive, most of us will still be alive — but we will inhabit a different world. 

Healthcare, politics, economy, culture will be different and the choices we make now could change our lives for years to come.

There are 2 choices we will make in tackling this virus  over the next year that will determine the path over the rest of the century - writes Yuval Noah Herari has an outstanding article in the Fin Times

1. Surveillance - should there be privacy? 

2. Will we travel down the route of disunity, or will we adopt the path of global solidarity?

Here is the dichotomy ..... if we are to act globally as one.... do we not have to be transparent? Should we not have anything to hide?

The key ingredient in being a connected , collaborative and contributive society is TRUST:

1. Surveillance - should there be privacy? 

Closely monitoring people’s smartphones, making use of hundreds of millions of face-recognising cameras, and obliging people to check and report their body temperature and medical condition, authorities can not only quickly identify suspected coronavirus carriers, but also track their movements and identify anyone they came into contact with. A range of mobile apps warn citizens about their proximity to infected patients. 

When you touch your phone to click a link - not only does big brother know what you’ve touched - but also knows your temperature and your pulse! 

This is an effective way of monitoring and beating this virus... but at what cost? 

Consider a hypothetical government that demands that every citizen wears a biometric bracelet that monitors body temperature and heart-rate 24 hours a day. The resulting data is hoarded and analysed by government algorithms. The algorithms will know that you are sick even before you know it, and they will also know where you have been, and who you have met. The chains of infection could be drastically shortened, and even cut altogether. Such a system could arguably stop the epidemic in its tracks within days. Sounds wonderful, right?

But if you can monitor what happens to my body temperature, blood pressure and heart-rate as I watch the video clip, you can learn what makes me laugh, what makes me cry, and what makes me really, really angry. 

It is crucial to remember that anger, joy, boredom and love are biological phenomena just like fever and a cough. The same technology that identifies coughs could also identify laughs. 

If corporations and governments start harvesting our biometric data en masse, they can get to know us far better than we know ourselves, and they can then not just predict our feelings but also manipulate our feelings and sell us anything they want — be it a product or a politician. 

(Can they already do this by our activity on social media?)

Biometric monitoring would make Cambridge Analytica’s data hacking tactics look like something from the Stone Age. Imagine North Korea in 2030, when every citizen has to wear a biometric bracelet 24 hours a day. If you listen to a speech by the Great Leader and the bracelet picks up the tell-tale signs of anger, you are done for.

Trust citizens to do the right thing and respect privacy or force police state ? 

2. We need to adopt the path of global solidarity

Both the epidemic itself and the resulting economic crisis are global problems and will be solved effectively only by global co-operation. 

To defeat the virus we need to share information globally. 

China can teach the US many valuable lessons about coronavirus and how to deal with it. 

What an Italian doctor discovers in Milan in the early morning might well save lives in Tehran by evening. 

When the UK government hesitates between several policies, it can get advice from the Koreans who have already faced a similar dilemma a month ago. 

But for this to happen, we need a spirit of global co-operation and trust.  

 Countries should be willing to share information openly and humbly seek advice, and should be able to trust the data and the insights they receive. 

We also need a global effort to produce and distribute medical equipment, most notably testing kits and respiratory machines.

 Instead of every country trying to do it locally and hoarding whatever equipment it can get, a co-ordinated global effort could greatly accelerate production and make sure life-saving equipment is distributed more fairly.

This  war against coronavirus needs for us humans to connect, collaborate and contribute and show that we are one community.

Countries currently less affected could send medical staff to the worst-hit regions of the world, both in order to help them in their hour of need, and in order to gain valuable experience. 

Global co-operation is vitally needed on the economic front too. Given the global nature of the economy and of supply chains, if each government does its own thing in complete disregard of the others, the result will be chaos and a deepening crisis. 

We are all human - and we will fight this by being one community - through collaboration , sharing knowledge,, sharing resources , helping and supporting our fellow human - in whichever way you can. 

The following was written by Ian Jacobsberg during a sleepless night after South Africa was called into lockdown

“The scourge we are facing doesn’t hate us because we are black or white, or anything in between.

It doesn’t condemn us because we are Buddhist, Christian, Hindu, Jewish or Muslim.

It doesn’t judge us because we are rich or poor.

It doesn’t blame us for its troubles because we are liberals, conservatives, capitalists or socialists.

It attacks and kills us because we are human.

So let us respond with humanity. Many people will find themselves isolated. 

Reach out to them and encourage them to reach out. You may not be able to offer tangible help, but show them you care. Make personal contact with those you can and share messages of hope and strength on social media for those whom you can’t. Read the messages you receive with care and respond with compassion and sensitivity. 

Yes, we are all going be frustrated, maybe angry and resentful. If it helps let it out. But do it without condemnation or judgement, without blaming or  hating. 

If we stand together with humanity, we will get through this and we will be better for it.”

This is what Yuval Noah Harari concludes in this article 

If we choose disunity, this will not only prolong the crisis, but will probably result in even worse catastrophes in the future. If we choose global solidarity, it will be a victory not only against the coronavirus, but against all future epidemics and crises that might assail humankind in the 21st century. 

For the full article in the financial times , click financial times Yuval Noah Harari 

click financial times Yuval Noah Harari 

Should we keep things in perspective?

And for a bit of balance 

University of Hamburg data

The number of deaths in the world in the first two months of 2020

       2360 : Corona virus

      69602 : Common cold

      140 584 : Malaria

     153,696 : suicide

     193,479 : road accidents

     240,950 : HIV loss

     358,471 : alcohol

     716,498 : smoking

  1,177,141 : Cancer

 Then do you think Corona is dangerous? 

 Or

is the purpose of the media campaign to settle the trade war between China and America 

or

to reduce financial markets to prepare the stage of financial markets for mergers and acquisitions 

or 

to sell US Treasury bonds to cover the fiscal deficit in them

Or

Is it a Panic created by Pharma companies to sell their products like sanitizer, masks, medicine etc.

Do not Panic & don't forward Rumors.

I am posting this to balance your newsfeed from posts that caused fear and panic. 

82,000 People are sick with Coronavirus at the moment, of which 77,000 are in China. With a population of over 1.1 billion. This means that if you are not in or haven't recently visited China, this should eliminate 94% of your concern.

If you do contract Coronavirus, this still is not a cause for panic because:

81% of the Cases are MILD

14% of the Cases are MODERATE

Only 5% of the Cases are CRITICAL

Which means that even if you do get the virus, you are most likely to recover from it.

Some have said, “but this is worse than SARS!”. SARS had a fatality rate of 10% while COVID-19 has a fatality rate of 2%

Moreover, looking at the ages of those who are dying of this virus, the death rate for the people UNDER 50 years of age is only 0.2%

This means that: if you are under 50 years of age and don't live in China - you are more likely to win the lottery (which has a 1 in 45,000,000 chance)

Let’s take one of the worst days so far, the 10th of February, when 108 people in CHINA died of Coronavirus.

On the same day:

26,283 people died of Cancer

24,641 people died of Heart Disease

4,300 people died of Diabetes

Suicide took 28 times more lives than the virus did.

Mosquitoes kill 2,740 people every day, HUMANS kill 1,300 fellow humans every day, and Snakes kill 137 people every day. (Sharks kill 2 people a year)

REST AND DO THE DAILY THINGS TO SUPPORT YOUR IMMUNE SYSTEM , PROPER HYGIENE AND DO NOT LIVE  IN FEAR.

SHARE TO STOP PANIC

An excellent site for data on the virus

Click here 

This is an excellent site for data on the virus

The one thing I must control now is my interactions with others and the world.  It is my most important job both for myself, my wife, and others.  On our front door and on my computer screen is this reminder sign. “

Oh, you obviously can touch your face after washing your hands.  Just remember not to touch anything, like the can of beans you just brought into the house without washing your hands again.  I know this is obvious to everyone here, but you can’t be too careful. We can’t make even one mistake!

 “Calm emerges when we are not controlled by circumstances out of our control. Knowing the limits of our actions, and conversely the strength of our own power, is critical to finding a place where we can be in support of others.  And gratitude and kindness never hurt. “

Summary of McKinsey Report on Economic Impact - as of March 18

Demand suffers as consumers cut spending throughout the year. In the most affected sectors, the number of corporate layoffs and bankruptcies rises throughout 2020, feeding a self-reinforcing downward spiral.

The financial system suffers significant distress,

but a full-scale banking crisis is averted

because of banks’ strong capitalization and the macroprudential supervision now in place. 

Fiscal and monetary-policy responses prove insufficient to break the downward spiral.

The global economic impact is severe, approaching the global financial crisis of 2008–09. GDP contracts significantly in most major economies in 2020, and recovery begins only in Q2 2021.

The coronavirus crisis is a story with an unclear ending. What is clear is that the human impact

is already tragic, and that companies have an imperative to act immediately to protect their employees, address business challenges and risks, and help to mitigate the outbreak in whatever ways they can.

Here are some interesting stats from China.... 

1. Disease causes fatalities mainly to population 70 plus

2. Increase Testing seems to have a direct result in reducing cases of the virus

3. Major Countries affected outside China are Iran , Otaly and South Korea 



4. Significant economic effects on consumer spending, retail sales, car sales, smartphones, hotel occupancy, tourism - no company remains unaffected . 

Positive - reduced pollution 

Could Coronavirus be the black swan of 2020 ?

We could be facing a recession ... for most it will be bad... for those with an abundant mindset and a solid vision - it could be really good.  

Many of the most iconic companies were forged and shaped in difficult times - vis-à-vis 

• Cisco - took advantage of black Monday in 1987.
• Google and PayPal negotiated their journey after the Dotcom crash 
• Airbnb , Square and Stripe were founded in the GFC.

Challenges focus the mind - and provide fertile ground for creativity and innovation .

Taleb - who wrote the book “black swan” talks about the effect of the black swan to different people .... 

“what may be a black swan surprise for a turkey is not a black swan surprise to its butcher; hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey" by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white"

 https://medium.com/sequoia-capital/coronavirus-the-black-swan-of-2020-7c72bdeb9753

1. Have enough cash! Have enough access to money to ride out the tough period (toilet paper?) - and have enough access to money or “currency” to make the great acquisitions. Remember the core principal that my grandmother taught me - buy low and sell high!!! Seize opportunities when your competitors have been battered! In a downturn - revenue and cash levels fall faster in a recession 
2. Be prepared to change - be adaptable - as Darwin said - those who survive “are not the strongest or the most intelligent , but the most adaptable to change.
3. Face facts - False optimism can be destructive - face the facts and take decisive action. Look at your overheads, Capex and budgets and reassess.

The surprising nation that leads the world in innovation

NAB  writes a fantastic article on the importance of innovation after interviewing Dr Massimo Garbuio, Associate Professor in Entrepreneurship at the University of Sydney.

 I am delighted that this validates the “NextTech Revolution” - which is about vocational education and training being a key platform for retaining your team, building building a strong culture, encouraging innovation and spurring growth. 

Switzerland has topped world innovation for nine years running and Australia has slipped from 17th in 2015 to 22nd on the Global Innovation list.

Australia has always punched above its weight - with inventions such as the Black box flight recorders, spray-on skin, wifi and many others it can lay claim to.

Is Australia’s pipeline of innovation drying up?

Switzerland  has Europe’s highest number of patent applications relative to population size, with an impressive record of bringing innovative products to market. 

It invests heavily in innovation, particularly start-ups and new technologies – over 300 start-ups are founded each year. 

It has World-class Research and Development (R&D) establishments collaborating  with educational institutions and universities, and there’s also a focus on the green economy including clean technologies and power production.

So what can we learn from Switzerland ?

5 key factors says Dr Massimo Garbuio, 

1. Become a magnet for talent

Switzerland is well-placed to attract and retain talent. The pay is good, there is a good quality of life and their companies nurture its talent.

As the war for talent continues to heat up globally, highly-skilled people are getting harder to find. 

Australian businesses could benefit by thinking ahead – recruiting people with potential then providing the education and training they need to develop critical skills. This could be the key to building a loyal team of innovators.

Recruit , Train and Retain  is the mantra for NextTech 

HBR Talks about the 6 habits of talent management 

https://hbr.org/2011/01/the-six-habits-of-a-talent-mag‬

Summarised below 

Search Results

Featured snippet from the web

The Six Habits of a Talent Magnet

1. Get to know the most talented individuals early on, when you don't need them. ... 
2. Create and manage the right expectations. ... 
3. Look at their hearts — and not just their smarts. ... 
4. Cultivate them over time. ... 
5. On-board them thoughtfully. ... 
6. Mentor them for their success.

2. Make the most of education

Switzerland has built a strong educational foundation and, importantly, a robust apprenticeship system. Nearly two-thirds of young people pursue a vocational program, and those who gain a diploma or certificate can take on professional education and training to prepare them for highly technical roles.

“Many will be equipped to help translate academic research into practical applications,” Garbuio says. “This may be the key to unlocking product and service innovation.”

Global research has found that businesses that invest more in their people’s training have more engaged staff, and that organisations with more engaged staff deliver better financial results. 

What’s more, according to LinkedIn’s 2018 Workforce Learning Report, 93 per cent of employees would stay at a company longer if it invested in their careers. 

Consider the learning and development opportunities currently on offer in your organisation or team. 

Is there more that could be done to formalise the offering, communicate it and increase your people’s learning?

3. Take risks

There’s a chance that Australia is being hampered by its own good fortune.

“I once heard that resource-rich countries tend to be quite risk averse,” says Garbuio. “After doing my own research in this area I believe that’s true. 

I think that countries like Israel, Sweden and Switzerland, with few natural resources to fall back on, are more prepared to take the kinds of risks that drive innovation.”

The latest NAB Australian Business Innovation Index 2019, which measures how businesses are doing things differently, more quickly or more cost efficiently, found that Australian business leaders have become even less willing to take risks and explore new ideas in the face of tougher economic conditions. 

Heightened uncertainty around global trade tensions and growth is also weighing heavily on businesses as they focus more on shorter-term cost objectives and outcomes.

“Even at a larger or more established corporate level, many Australian businesses are excessively focused on the short term,” says Garbuio.

3. Embrace failure

Garbuio believes that a cultural stigma attached to failure is another barrier to innovation.

“Failure still isn’t appreciated as a learning mechanism,” he says. “It’s getting better, but we are still a long way from Silicon Valley, Israel and some European countries.”

He is also concerned that management and boards tend to focus on compliance at the expense of big ideas and the long-term growth of companies for the benefit of societies at large.

“There has to be a balance of course – you can’t be all innovation and no compliance,” he says. “But, overall, there is too little of the former and too much of the latter.”

4. Be willing to collaborate

Another theme to emerge is the importance of collaboration.

One of our goals is to encourage more collaboration in Australia - bringing governments, academia and industry coming together to collaborate , learn and grow!  

Just get them in a room - says Ivan Kaye founder of BBG 

It’s about the 5Cs 

“Connection, collaboration , contribution  - do those continuously and you will build a connected collaborative community!”

Universities Australia Chair Professor Margaret Gardner has made it clear that, by tapping into university talent, business can source new ideas, get the jump on early stage research and cut the time it takes to bring new products to market. 

And modelling by Cadence Economics for Universities Australia released in 2018 demonstrated that the 16,000 companies already partnering with universities derive $10.6 billion in revenue from their collaborations.

5. Positive intentions

Banks and Private equity support SME’s both in cash and kind 

The NAB Innovation Index found the outlook for innovation over the next 12 months is relatively positive, with around 40 per cent of businesses planning to invest more in innovation than they did in the past year. 

The new Australian Business Growth Fund could support this ambition.

“It’s just been announced that the four major banks, plus Macquarie and HSBC, will contribute capital to a fund to help mid-sized SMEs access finance,” Loveridge says.

“This is a very encouraging initiative. It will boost other sources of growth capital in the marketplace by providing capability support for innovative and fast-growing companies.”

www.nexttech.edu.au 

Waymo raises $2.25 billion - plans for 60% market share of Autonomous vehicles by 2030

Waymo, Google parent company Alphabet’s autonomous vehicles division, has just secured its first round of funding of $2.25 billion from the whose who of funds including 

• Silver Lake, 
• Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, 
• Mubadala Investment Company (the sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi), 
• Magna International, 
• Andreessen Horowitz, 
• auto retail giant AutoNation, 
• and of course Alphabet itself. 

It’s an initial close on the company’s first round of funding.

CEO of Waymo  John Krafcik (formerly CEO of Hyundai) said that to build a successful business - collaboration is key - and that business is a team sport.  “Waymo is delighted to  bring to the team a bevy of financial investors who will bring decades of experience investing in and supporting successful technology companies building transformative products.”

The Vision  

 “to deploy “the Waymo Driver” around the world making our roads safer, 

The state of play

Today 

• headcount to 1,500 employees or “Waymonauts,” 
• annual cost a around $1 billion, while its robo-taxi business — Waymo One — reportedly yields just hundreds of thousand dollars a year in revenue from its 600 vehicles to date, 
• over 1,500 people are using its ride-hail autonomous taxis with 100,000 total rides since launching its rider programs in 2017.

History 

2009 - Google tests autonomous cars equipped with lidar sensors, radar, cameras, and powerful onboard computers in San Francisco 

2016 - Waymo launches in Phoenix doing a partnership deal with Lyft

2019 - Waymo app launches - look and feel not dissimilar to the UBER and Lyft app.

The Plan 

2020 - short term plan - add up to 62,000 Chrysler Pacifica minivans to its fleet and has signed a deal with Jaguar Land Rover to equip 20,000 of the automaker’s Jaguar I-Pace electric SUVs with its system by 2020. (A few of the I-Paces are currently undergoing testing on public roads in San Francisco.)

2025-2030 

According to marketing firm ABI, as many as 8 million driverless cars will be added to the road in 2025, and Research and Markets anticipates that there will be some 20 million autonomous cars in operation in the U.S. by 2030. 

Waymo plans to dominate the driverless car market in the next decade, with over 60% market share - and the smart money clearly believes the narrative .

The technology 

Later this year, Waymo plans to release its latest autonomous driving system — the fifth-generation Waymo Driver — featuring a new lidar sensor design that’s “breakthrough” in terms of cost-efficiency. The fifth-generation Driver will also boast revamped radars and vision systems, as well as “all-weather” capabilities including defrost and wiper elements and a “significant upgrade” in onboard compute power.

The competitors 

Yandex, Tesla, Zoox, Aptiv, May Mobility, Pronto.ai, Aurora, Nuro, and GM’s Cruise Automation are among Waymo’s self-driving car competitors, to name just a few. 

Daimler last summer obtained a permit from the Chinese government that allows it to test autonomous cars powered by Baidu’s Apollo platform on public roads in China. 

Beijing-based Pony.ai, which has raised hundreds of millions in venture capital, launched a driverless taxi pilot in Irvine in October. 

And startup Optimus Ride built out a small autonomous shuttle fleet in New York City, becoming the first to do so.

China is making a big push to catch up. Since December, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai have all given the green light for autonomous cars to start real-world testing on city roads

The People in the Game 

It’s a small but growing industry - where talent is at a massive premium 

Engineeers, Softwate developers and technicians with experience in this space can name their price!! 

Here is a list of some of the players in the game

• John Krafcik - CEO of Waymo supported by Egon Durban - Co -CEO  of Sver Lake 
• Chris Urmson - CEO Aurora supporyed by  Carle Eschenbach - sequoia representativ
• Sterling Anderson - ex Tesla
• Drew Bagne - ex Uber 
• Anthony Levandowski - set up pronto - ex Uber exec - indicted for stealing Waymo technology
• Randell Iwasaki, executive director of Contra Costa Transportation Authority, which is trying to deploy both U.S. and foreign-made shuttles on public roads.
• Robert Falck - Einride CEO 
• Don Burnette recently secured $40 million for their startup, Kodiak Robotics
• Edwin Olson of the University of Michigan 
• Nidhi Kalra of the RAND Corporation — 
• Huu-Hoi Tran, the head of KPMG’s automotive practice in China.
• Robin Li, Baidu’s chief executive, said autonomous cars would be on Chinese roads within three to five years
• And of course Elon Musk of Tesla

Self-driving trucks

Self driving trucks have always been the holy grail - and Waymo has clearly put its stake in the ground.

Chrysler Pacifica vans have been retrofitted with Waymo’s technology stack and is mapping roads ahead of driverless Peterbilt trucks as part of a project known as Waymo Via. 

Waymo Via — formally announced today — focusses on “all forms of goods delivery.” 

It encompasses both short- and long-haul delivery, from freight transported across interstates down to local delivery. 

They have started mapping  Los Angeles to study congestion and expanding testing to highways in Florida between Orlando, Tampa, Fort Myers, and Miami as it conducts self-driving truck pilots in the San Francisco Bay Area, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, and on Metro Phoenix freeways (as well as on the I-10 between Phoenix and Tucson). 

In the Metro Pheonix area, the company is piloting autonomous vehicle package transportation between UPS Store locations and a local UPS sorting facility.

The market and value proposition of self driving trucks 

6,700 units globally, totaling $54.23 billion saving the logistics and shipping industry $70 billion annually and boosting productivity by 30%. 

The Pain 

In 2018, the American Trucking Associates recognised a shortage of truck drivers - estimating that 50,000 more truckers were needed to meet demand, even after proposed U.S. Transportation Department screenings for sleep apnea were sidelined.

The Competition 

•  TuSimple raised $12 bbg 0m in September 
•  Pronto.ai - intrigue - CEO being sued for stealing Waymo secrets 
• Aurora, the last of which attracted a $530 million investment at a valuation over $2 billion in February (led by Sequoia )
• Ike, a self-driving truck startup founded by former Apple, Google, Uber Advanced Technologies Group engineers that has raised $52 million, 
•  Einride.  Swedish driverless car company 
• Meanwhile, former Battery Ventures VP Paz Eshel and former Uber and Otto engineer Don Burnette recently secured $40 million for their startup, Kodiak Robotics. 
• Embark — which integrates its driverless systems into semis and launched a pilot with Amazon to haul cargo
• Other autonomous truck solutions from incumbents like Daimler and Volvo.

The technology networks and infrastructure driving the technology

The industry will advance with the advent of 5G -  it will be interesting to see how collaboration takes place between the players  

The Chinese telecoms Huawei is providing its AI infrastructure to a number of high-profile carmakers, including Audi, and China’s state-owned carmakers, GAC Group, Beijing New Energy Automobile, and Changan Automobile.