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Creating Generational Legacies

Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Vital Lessons on Disruption From the Demise of Corporate Giants


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This post is about how to not to be disrupted and, perhaps more importantly, how to disrupt yourself before someone else does.

I had the chance to sit down with Ed McNierney, who came out of Lotus 1-2-3 and ran digital strategy at Kodak. Over the years, he has learned a lot from both Lotus and Kodak’s failures.

Ed brings 30 years of wide-ranging technology expertise to the table — and he’s seen a lot of unintended disruption.

Who Is Ed McNierney?

In the late 1980s, Ed led the development of Lotus 1-2-3 for Windows in an attempt to compete with the highly disruptive Microsoft Excel (I’ll share the full story in a minute).

A few years later, he ended up leading digital strategy at Kodak. He didn’t last long; Ed left when he experienced firsthand Kodak’s unwillingness to change, rapidly racing into a brick wall of bankruptcy in 2012.

He’s been through several “disruptions” in his own right and has learned a lot along the way.

We’ll get into the do’s and don’ts from Ed’s experience in a minute — but first, a bit of history and context about Lotus and Kodak.

History — Context Around Lotus and Kodak

In the 80s, Lotus was the Google of its day — it was the software company.

Its core product, Lotus 1-2-3, was the killer app: it was the reason people bought PCs.

In parallel, Lotus saw that Microsoft was developing Windows and another product called Excel.

The Lotus team saw the incoming threat of Windows, but thought if they ignored Windows and didn’t build apps for it, everyone else would stay away from Windows, too.

Instead, their biggest customers — Procter and Gamble, Exxon and Shell, among others — thought differently. They were leaving Lotus and going to Windows/Excel.

Then Lotus rushed to bring a product to market.

But they made a fatal mistake: instead of looking only forward, they made their product entirely backwards compatible, or compatible with their past.

Meanwhile, Microsoft focused 100 percent on building a great Windows spreadsheet, compatibility be damned.

Lotus’ strategy didn’t work. They couldn’t keep up. Complete disruption.

The company was ultimately acquired by IBM in 1995 and, today, no longer has a product line.

Now, let’s look at Kodak:

Shortly after Ed left Lotus, he joined Kodak as its VP of Digital Strategy. This was 1996, the heyday of Kodak. Kodak had a $28 billion market cap and 140,000 employees.

In 1976, 20 years earlier, Kodak had invented the digital camera. They owned the IP and had the first mover advantage. This is a company that should have owned it all.

Instead, in 2012, Kodak filed for bankruptcy, put out of business by the very technology they had invented. What happened?

Kodak was married to the “paper and chemicals” (film development) business… their most profitable division, while the R&D on digital cameras was a cost center.

They saw the digital world coming on, but were convinced that digital cameras wouldn’t have traction outside of the professional market.

They certainly had the expertise to design and build consumer digital cameras — Kodak actually built the Apple QuickTake (see photo), generally considered the world’s first consumer digital camera.

Ed McNierney holding Apple QuickTake (by Kodak)

Ed McNierney holding Apple QuickTake (by Kodak).

Amazingly, Kodak decided they didn’t even want to put their name on the camera.

What happened next? The “digital movement” decimated them… they simply couldn’t keep up and, as mentioned, filed for bankruptcy in 2012.

Graph - Photos Taken Each Year

It’s difficult to create change in a large organization steeped in tradition, and even harder to disrupt yourself when you’re cranking out cash the way Kodak was.

But you have to disrupt yourself, or someone else will.

During his time at Lotus and Kodak, Ed learned a lot about what not to do.

Here are eight things you shouldn’t do if you want to avoid disruption.

Eight Don’ts — How Not To Be Disrupted

  1. Don’t close out your options too early: For Kodak, they decided they weren’t going to be in the digital camera business. As a result, they stopped devoting resources to digital before it was too late. Don’t eliminate new products, new markets and new opportunities from your possible pipeline.
  2. Don’t be tied to your history: As Ed relayed, “You have way more ahead of you than behind you…bringing the dead weight of your legacy from your past into the future can be detrimental to the business.” Just because Kodak was in the paper-and-chemicals business doesn’t mean they can’t be something else.
  3. Don’t be overly attached to your existing business: All existing products/services will be disrupted, and revenues will eventually go to zero. Don’t be attached to them. You have to move with technology and the market. This is hardest when you are profitable, like Kodak. You must be aware that you’re most vulnerable when you’re doing well.
  4. Don’t ignore the signals: Ed mentioned, “It’s easy to see that little disruptive force on the horizon and think to yourself, 'Boy I hope that thing goes away,' or, 'I hope if I ignore that, it’s just not going to happen.' Don’t ignore them. Your biggest threats are probably in the deceptive phrase.
  5. Don’t be tentative: Kodak built the first digital camera. But they were tentative. They didn’t want to put their name on it. Don’t be tentative; be bold. Don’t play defense — spend money on accelerating (we’ll get to this in a second).
  6. Don’t say, “We can’t do X because it is not the way we do things”: “It’s not the way we do it” is never a good enough argument NOT to try something new…
  7. Don’t worry about the big guys: When looking at potential disruptions, don’t worry about the big companies. They are usually (with some exceptions) slow-moving and tentative, ironically enough (see Kodak and Lotus). Instead, you should be worrying about the small guys in a garage. They have nothing to lose. Try to find them…invest in them, partner with them or hire them.
  8. Don’t fret! You are fighting against billions of years of human evolution. We have evolved to be linear thinkers. Just keep trying to innovate and avoid doing the things above. And keep reading.

Now let’s talk about a few things you CAN do to disrupt yourself.

Six Do’s of Disruption: How to Disrupt Yourself

  1. Disrupt your adjacencies: It’s hard to disrupt yourself; few companies have ever done this. So instead, try to disrupt your suppliers and/or your customers. You can disrupt your suppliers by vertically integrating and building business around the systems that power your existing business. You can disrupt your customers by looking at the other products and services they are already using and build better ones. Apple, Amazon and Google are all great at both of these.
  2. Build the best products, or get a piece of them: The best product wins. Either build the best product in your category, or if you can’t, find a way to get a piece of the best one.
  3. Be agile: Agility is everything. Make sure you have the right culture and people to support agility. Oftentimes organizations have an immune response to new innovations — instead, try to make innovation and change a part of your culture.
  4. Watch your customers, then listen to them: It sounds intuitive, but it’s not. As Ed mentioned, Lotus saw that their customers were switching to Excel. Then they heard them say they preferred it. And yet they didn’t do much about it. Your customers are your lifeblood. Listen to them and adapt to them.
  5. Build a Skunkworks: Ed mentioned, “I would have loved to have had a business inside Kodak whose job it was to totally destroy the core business.” I’ve talked about this idea before — you need to create a safe, secure place for innovation to happen.
  6. Have an abundance mindset: As Ed puts it, “There is more ahead of you than behind you.” Don’t be afraid to reinvent yourself.

Image credit: Shutterstock.com

Saturday, May 28, 2016

Into the future

By Udo Gollub at Messe Berlin, Germany

I just went to the Singularity University summit. Here are the key points I gathered.

Rise and Fall: In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they were bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years – and most people don’t see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore’s law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became superior and mainstream in only a few short years. This will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, self-driving and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. 

Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age. Software and operating platforms will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool. They don’t own any cars, but they are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice, (so far for more or less basic stuff), within seconds. With 90% accuracy, compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you are studying law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer generalist lawyers in the future; only specialists will be needed.

‘Watson’ already helps nurses diagnose cancer, four times more accurately than doctors. Facebook now has pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030, computers will have become more intelligent than humans.

Cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will be offered to the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car on your phone; it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive whilst driving. Our kids will never get a driver’s licence and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for our future needs. We can transform former parking spacesinto parks. At present,1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 kms. With autonomous driving, that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.

Electric cars will become mainstream around and after 2020. Cities will be cleaner and much less noisy because all cars will run on electricity, which will become much cheaper. 

Most traditional car companies may become bankrupt by tacking the evolutionary approach and just building better cars; while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will take the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi. They are terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble, because without accidents, the insurance will become 100 times cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate values based on proximities to work-places, schools, etc. will change, because if you can work effectively from anywhere or be productive while you commute, people will move out of cities to live in a more rural surroundings.

Solar energy production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but only now is having a big impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that almost all coal mining companies will be out of business by 2025.

Water for all: With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don’t have scarce water in most places; we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if everyone can have as much clean water as they want, for virtually no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year - a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with yourphone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and your breath. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any diseases. It will be cheap, so in a few years, everyone on this planet will have access to world class, low cost, medicine.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from 18,000$ to 400$ within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started printing3D shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D-printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to need in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they have already 3D-printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D-printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to enter, ask yourself: “in the future, do you think we will have that?” And if the answer is yes, then work on how you can make that happen sooner. If it doesn’t work via your phone, forget the idea. And any idea that was designed for success in the 20th century is probably doomed to fail in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear that there will be enough new jobs in such a short time.

Agriculture: There will be a 100$ agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their fields instead of working in them all day. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first veal produced in a petri dish is now available. Itwill be cheaper than cow- produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces are used for rearing cattle. Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore. There are several start-ups which will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as “alternative protein source” (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

Apps: There is already an app called “moodies” which can tell the mood you are inBy 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where we know whether the participantsare telling the truth and when not!

Currencies: Many currencies will be abandoned. Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the future default reserve currency. 

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span was 79 years, now it is 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than a one-year increase per year. So we all might live for a long, long time, probably way beyond 100.

Education: The cheapest smartphones already sell at 10$ in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone. That means everyone will have much the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan Academy for everything he needs to learn at schools in First World countries. Further afield, the software has been launched in Indonesia and will be released it in Arabic, Swahili and Chinese this summerThe English app will be offered free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.

Whew!


How to keep humanity busy (and earning) is becoming increasingly uncertain. And how to deal with population numbers is another matter. But at least the GINI index may not be so critical if most of essentials are dog-cheap.

 

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Why? What makes a city enticing for entrepreneurs and innovators to be there?

Austin was cited best city for a business to startup in USA , And ranks No. 6 among U.S. cities for fostering entrepreneurial growth and for its readiness to shift to the digital economy, according to a new report by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation, 1776 and Free Enterprise.

It rated  number 5 in access to available workforce.

In the Innovation That Matters report, Boston ranked No. 1 followed by the San Francisco Bay area, Denver, Raleigh-Durham and San Diego. The 35-page report studied 25 U.S. cities.

Why? What makes a city enticing for entrepreneurs and innovators to be there? 

Culture 

In city culture, meaning the correct “mindset and lifestyle” to attract entrepreneurs, Austin ranked No. 5. Raleigh-Durham topped the list for culture.

Response to technical innovation 

The way cities respond to technological innovation will play an important role in deciding which localities become leaders in the future, the authors write.

“Geographically, the digital economy is not advancing consistently across the country,” the report says. “It is concentrating in cities: densely populated and highly connected urban centers where people can work together closely to share and discuss ideas, build and test new products, and bring companies to scale with access to large pools of customers.”

It recommends that local officials do four things: 
1. Understand the trajectory of the digital economy; 
2. imagine a future where technological possibility intersects with legacy assets and strengths; 
3. focus beyond startups to include corporations, universities, nonprofits and local government; 
4. work toward a new governing framework that combines technological possibility and regulation.