Feedback on the Universal Basic Income Column

The Bob Pritchard Column 

Last Wednesday’s newsletter on Universal Basic Income experiments in Chicago, Alaska, Stockton, California, the Y Combinator trials, Western Kenya, Ontario, Canada and Finland received an incredible response from readers worldwide.  I would like to share some readers comments that were interesting and thought provoking.  I emphasize that I do not necessarily share these views.

 

 

The first response was from Colin Fabig, an Australian serial B2C internet entrepreneur, who founded and successfully exited another four tech startups which employed over 400 people over the past 15 years, creating revenues in the hundreds of millions and with total exit values in excess of $350m.  

 

Colin wrote:

 

There are a few issues with UBI:

• In the US it needs to be around $2k p/month to be above the poverty line.
• UBI vs a dole. It's not progressive - why give rich people money then tax them again?
• It's really a form of dole which alongside lots of free state services like health and education is a staple of social democracies from Australia and NZ to the Northern European states which all have the world’s best lifestyle metrics.
• Doles have many different flavors and the vanilla dole of just giving cash without looking at who is getting it and the enabling of alcoholism or drug dependence or simple joblessness has led to digital card doles that can only be spent on certain food and shelter items as well as work-for-the- dole ideas that try to prevent long-term unemployment
• Elementary budgeting and math can show that it is impossible to fund a "living wage" UBI. Let's say 200m adult Americans = 12 months x $2000 X 200m = $4,8 trillion. The entire US government tax revenue is about $3,8trn. Even if you halved that to $1k per month = $2,4 trn - there is not enough left to pay for government services. And that's the idea!
• UBI is a libertarian idea to get rid of most government services. No hospitals, no free education, no roads, no parks, no EPA, no SES, no infrastructure - leave it all to the market.

A far better idea is a livable wage for every adult via a progressive negative tax with provisos that they are contributing to society in some way (from volunteering to creative efforts to caring etc. or are physically or mentally unable to. So, if you earn zero, you get a rebate of $24k. If you earn $12k - you get a rebate of say $14k. If you earn $18k - you get a rebate of $8k, if you earn $24k you get a rebate of $6k and at say $30k. Up to $40k you get an extra $2k etc. Then progressive tax from there with top rates of say 60% over $1m per annum and progressive capital gains tax from say 20% at $1m to say 50% at $10m and above. 

 

The outcome of this will be:

a) Massive ongoing Keynesian demand stimulus from poor people spending money vs rich people hoarding cash in fixed investments and capital stagnation.

   b) Massive new business and jobs creation to satisfy new demand form the poor.

c) The US could actually expand social services like universal healthcare and possibly college education.   

   d) all funded though demand lead and progressive tax.

 

Oren Castro from Burnish Creative in the United States writes:  

Bob, there’s one piece missing here. In Alaska they have oil revenue to pay for this.  Everywhere else is looking at a 7-14% VAT tax increase or else how is it paid for?   So, get a free check in the mail, but everything you buy gets more expensive. 

Isn’t that basically a wash?

 

Allen Phillips, B.B.A., of Atlantic Speakers Bureau in Canada wrote:

Bob, the new Premier of Ontario, Doug Ford, and his cronies are having none of that. The Ontario basic income pilot project is coming to an end, says Children, Community and Social Services Minister Lisa MacLeod.  MacLeod said Tuesday that the project was expensive, and "clearly not the answer for Ontario families."

 

Philippe Lewicki, from France says:

Bob, you want to check into France's RMI and RSA programs the RMI exists for 30 years now. It’s way more than a pilots.

http://www.rmi-fr.com/      http://rsa-revenu-de-solidarite-active.com/

 

The results of this universal basic income program are very mixed and once you start them its complicated to change or revert without big social and economic impact

History of Money - Crytpocurrency is the next logical evolution

Is “digital cryptos” the next logical tool to be used  for between humans? 

The current currencies used to be backed by the gold standard - it is now not underwritten by anything except the whim of governments who use money as a form of controlling their particular economy. 

Cryptocurrencies is the next logical step in a fair and pure capitalistic currency.

What do you think? 

Universal Basic Income Trials around the world

The Bob Pritchard Column 

Universal basic income, a system in which everyone regularly receives a check from the government regardless of income, has been growing in popularity over the last few years. Basic income is being considered as a partial solution to the loss of jobs caused by robots and AI.

 

In Chicago, a bill has been proposed to provide 1,000 families with $500 a month in a pilot that would make Chicago the largest US city to try a basic income program. The bill was introduced because of concern that automation could leave millions of people without jobs.  Beyond Chicago, a number of cities and countries around the world are running their own experiments.

 

 

Many economists and tech experts say they support basic income because it could keep people from poverty as they look for new jobs. A number of big names in Silicon Valley have voiced support for universal basic income as well. Mark Zuckerberg, for example, advocated for the system during his commencement speech at Harvard last year.

 

Critics of basic income, meanwhile, say such programs would cause people to stop working and create a society that lacks motivation.   Here are some of the biggest experiments:

 

Alaska residents receive up to $2,000 each year.  Each year, eligible Alaskans receive a check of up to $2,000 as part of the Permanent Fund Dividend.  The program was established in 1982 and is financed by the state's oil wealth. Anyone who has lived in Alaska for a full year is eligible to receive the funds as long as they have not committed a felony or misdemeanor that year.

 

A 2017 survey from The Economic Security Project shows that 81% of Alaskan residents believe a cash transfer program run by the state makes a positive difference in their quality of life.

 

Stockton, California is launching the first universal basic income experiment in an American city.  The city plans to give $500 a month to some of Stockton's low-income residents. The trial is expected to last 18 months.

 

Y Combinator aims to provide basic income to 3,000 Americans. YC will choose 3,000 people from two states and split them into two groups. One-third of the participants will be put in a group that receives $1,000 a month for up to five years. The remaining 2,000 people will be treated as the control group and receive $50 per month.

 

Thousands of people in western Kenya receive $22 per month. The charity GiveDirectly is providing  16,000 residents in forty villages with a universal basic income for 12 years.  GiveDirectly provides each resident who had lived in the village for at least one year about $22 per month. For many of the recipients, that meant their income was doubled. Another 40 villages are receiving the same amount for only two years.  In addition, 80 villages received a lump sum equal to the two-year amount, and 100 villages that are acting as the control variable received no money.

 

More than a year after the study launched, GiveDirectly said it believes the UBI is reducing poverty.

 

The Canadian government launched a three-year basic income pilot in Ontario to test whether a basic income can improve education and health outcomes for low-income individuals.  About 4,000 people across three test locations were selected for the pilot. To be eligible, residents had to be living in one of the three areas for a full year leading up to the pilot. Only low-income residents between the ages of 18 and 64 were considered.

 

One person could receive up to $16,989 per year, minus half of any earned income. Couples could earn up to $24,027 each year, minus half of any income they earned, and anyone with a disability could receive an extra $6,000.

 

Finland is now ending its two-year basic income trial.  The two-year pilot program is set to end in January 2019. Finland  pays 560 euros (about 680 dollars) per month to a random sample of 2,000 unemployed people.  Recipients keep receiving the monthly amount even if they got a job during the trial.  The country's social security agency has refused to release any data until after the pilot ends, citing privacy reasons and a desire to avoid bias.

Australia - Don’t we already have this withthe Dole?  

The evolution of the employee

From kids’ disco parties to global tech company: AmazingCo secures $2.3 million cap raise

From Anthill Magazine

Silvia and Jeremy

AmazingCo, a data-driven experiences platform, recently announced a $2.3 million raise led by Rampersand VC, including Macdoch Ventures, Aconex’s founders Leigh Jasper and Rob Phillpot, Luxury Escapes co-founder Adam Schwab and Richmond AFL captain Trent Cotchin.

AmazingCo creates and manages experiences that help people connect and spend their time in a meaningful way. 

From kids entertainment to wine tours, date night activities and team building events, each experience is created and customised based upon personal preferences and a unique set of interactive planning and booking tools.

The first iteration of AmazingCo was founded by Silvia Hope, Jeremy Cox, Nick Brozovic and Daniel Cox in 2012 as a traditional kids entertainment company. After delivering more than 6,000 events a year they realised they had more data and insights into consumer preferences and desires – and in particular unmet demand.

What is AmazingCo looking to achieve?

“Traditional entertainment businesses don’t scale well, so it has remained largely a cottage industry. With our combination of experiences across entertainment, data and technology, we were able to take a different view,” Ms Hope said.

“We developed a centralised platform that understood what people wanted and, as a result of our scale and search traffic, identified where demand was not being met. And because of our scale we could build solutions, quickly, to meet those demands.”

“Not only did that turbocharge our ability to scale, it also allowed us to expand into new verticals and new geographies. We’re now a leading provider in multiple categories across Australia and have also launched in 8 US cities in the last 8 months,” she said.

The entertainment and recreation industry is one of the largest in the world, with data group IBIS World estimating it as more than USD 450 billion in the US alone, including the performing arts, events and food & entertainment industries.

Paul Naphtali with AmazingCo co-founders Silvia Hope, Jeremy Cox and Nick Brozovic

Rampersand VC cofounder Paul Naphtali commented: “We watched as Silvia and Jeremy grew their team and business and were struck by the clever way they are able to use the data and bring technology to a previously analog industry. It is remarkably similar to how Netflix uses data to create content, AmazingCo uses data to create experiences. The true magic is the ability to do so at high margins, with off the charts customer satisfaction.”

What is AmazingCo doing differently?

AmazingCo is the first to tackle this highly fragmented, antiquated market in the way Netflix approached digital content production.

“No one saw the opportunity to operate as a holistic experiences platform in this huge industry before, as events companies traditionally don’t scale or manage well across multiple types of experiences,” Ms Hope said. “We now have proof our processes and platform can operate successfully across very different verticals. So we’re uniquely positioned to be the first company to do so and to scale globally.”

Jeremy Cox, Silvia Hope and Nick Brozovic

After the successful initial expansion of the company’s experience offering, AmazingCo is turning its focus to international growth and expansion.

Part of the company’s aggressive growth plan is to expand its operations across the US, already having launched in 8 major cities, including Los Angeles, Boston and most recently Philadelphia. The decision to raise capital was made to support the company’s aggressive growth plans, and to keep evolving the AmazingCo experience portfolio and proprietary platform.

“Having run a sustainable business for a few years meant that raising capital wasn’t imperative to sustain the business as it was,” Mr Cox says.

“But with our proprietary platform and data-driven processes we have found ourselves in a unique position to help people spend their most important free time in a more meaningful way. We have the chance to help people build stronger connections and improve their quality of life, and that’s way too exciting to not put in a higher gear. So we made the decision to raise capital to accelerate our global expansion and growth.” Mr Cox says.

6 Traits that make Millennials different

Inspired from Contena

Millennials are different from the Gen-Xers and Baby Boomers who have a specific set of skills and value systems that have been purposely built for the gig economy ( In a recent study, it was noted that 38% of millennials are freelancing, which is higher than any other age group. )

So what makes the Millennials different?

1. They are “The Connected Generation”

They are digital natives - who are the masters of the technology and social media age.

They have the ability to be in constant communication around the globe with ease, connecting daily with peers, co-workers and industry leaders from their phone.

Social media, across all platforms, has blossomed into an indispensable business tool. becoming the key avenue for businesses to market themselves, their products, and their services.

There are apps by the dozen to help network with professionals in your field. (Referron being up there with the best ;).

Those who understand social media hold the keys to the gig economy.

Millennials value connections, are adept in all things Internet, and have a deep understanding of social media, putting them in an excellent position to lead the way for the future 

2. Millennials are Self-Starters, self empowered and entitled 

They are capable of (and willing to) follow their passions, go into business for themselves , and make a living doing so.

Starting your own business is easy - (will a laptop, wifi and a few dollars - you can connect with the world and start trading, but running one successful can be daunting.

Millennials will need the skills necessary to build successful businesses - and will need to build on their soft skills, emotional intelligence, connections and relationships.

3. Millennials Put a High Value on Quality of Life and balance 

Millennials are leaving the “9-5 grind” in droves, not because they are unhappy with the pay, but because they are dissatisfied with the culture. As a generation marked by wanting to make a change, they have started with their own lives.

Commuting, office politics, and strenuous work hours may be for some people, but Millennials seem to be looking for a better work-life balance than us baby boomers.

How better to break the monotony of office life than with the flexibility and freedom of the gig economy.

4. Millennials Don’t Shy Away From Uncertainty

Millennials have watched the world change (9-11, war, the Great Recession of 2008) and have learned how to adapt.

That sense of a firm financial footing that generations before us have had is something Millennials will not have the luxury of, with the average Millennial having 14 changes of career over their working life.

The education system needs to change - with a focus of continual - on the job learning. 

Millennials will take in a gig to learn and gain experience rather than hoping for a long term job of financial stability. 

They have to thrive on uncertainty, and make a path for themselves. They are the new entrepreneurs that need to be adept at pitching for new jobs and clients - understanding the need for leads proposals and sales.

5. Millennials Have Multiple Passions

Millennials are also defined by their interest in a diverse number of areas, and unprecedented knowledge of subjects gained from the connected world.

The flexibility of the gig economy affords Millennials the opportunities to pursue different avenues of interest, while still focusing on their careers. 

Being pigeonholed into one field in which you’ll stay until retirement is a distant memory of the elders.

Gigsters can control their work schedules, not the other way around.

The beauty of being in the gig economy is that you can do it full-time, part-time, or even just on weekends. It’s all up to you! 

One thing is clear - the gig economy is the future of the workforce.

6. It’s all about Education

Heidi Kaye - A Rudolph Steiner school teacher says that Schools for kids past 16 years old will be "co learning spaces" for three hours per day and the rest of the day will be spent doing practical things.

Practical Such as movement (sport, gym, dance) art (paint, design) , building (textiles, wood, metalwork) or other software skills.

It's so obvious that kids leave school without a sense of who they are, their capabilities, What life is really like, or what they can and can't do, and school needs to reflect the innovation/entrepreneur mindset of future work / life.

Continuous Learning programmes that fit with the psychie of the millennial is key. E’learning, short bursts, gamification, collaboration is the future of education.

This is an exciting time!

AI is not all bad for jobs

AI is not all bad for jobs say PWC UK - source https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jul/17/artificial-intelligence-will-be-net-uk-jobs-creator-finds-report

(Thanks to Vint for the find) 

A report from PWC UK suggests that artificial intelligence, robotics, drones and driverless technology is set to create more than 7m new UK jobs in healthcare, science and education by 2037, more than making up for the jobs lost in manufacturing and other sectors through automation.

The report estimated about 20% of jobs would be automated over the next 20 years - in factories , retail and services - and no sector would be unaffected, however, employment could increase by nearly 1 million on a net basis, equivalent to more than a fifth of existing jobs in the sector.

Professional, scientific and technical services, including law, accounting, architecture and advertising firms, are forecast to get the second-biggest boost, gaining nearly half a million jobs, while education is set to get almost 200,000 extra jobs.

Healthcare is likely to see rising employment as it will be increasingly in demand as society becomes richer and the population in the UK ages. 

While some jobs may be displaced, many more are likely to be created as real incomes rise and patients still want the ‘human touch’ from doctors, nurses and other health and social care workers.

On the other hand, as driverless vehicles roll out across the economy and factories and warehouses become increasingly automated, the manufacturing and transportation and storage sectors could see a reduction in employment levels.

PwC estimated the manufacturing sector could lose a quarter of current jobs through automation by 2037, a total of nearly 700,000.

Transport and storage are estimated to lose 22% of jobs – nearly 400,000 – followed by public administration and defence, with a loss of almost 275,000 jobs, an 18% reduction. 

Clerical tasks in the public sector are likely to be replaced by algorithms while in the defence industry humans will increasingly be replaced by drones and other technologies. 

Impact of artificial intelligence on jobs. Illustration: PwC analysis

London – home to more than a quarter of the UK’s professional, scientific and technical activities – will benefit the most from AI, with a 2.3% boost, or 138,000 extra jobs, the report said. The east Midlands is expected to see the biggest net reduction in jobs: 27,000, a 1.1% drop.

Regional analysis from PWC

Response from Kartik Garda 

At the moment, there are 6.5 million open positions in the US.  This is even after the fact that never in a century have immigrants been such a large share of the population.  But there are still at least 3 million who are underemployed.  As jobs become more fragmented, this mismatch will widen.   

A few elements of terminology that people should start internalizing :

i) Vertical Skill Gap : A truck driver cannot become a software engineer, especially in just 3 months of training. 

ii) Horizontal Skill Gap : A dermatologist cannot become a software engineer after just 3 months of training.

The solutions, of course, are :

i) There has to be a huge focus on lifetime retraining, and funding this should be one of the primary functions of government.  Expect 20-25% of the workforce to be in training for new careers at any given time.  

ii) There has to be a cushion in the form of a UBI, funded through the monetization of technological deflation.  

iii) There has to be a phaseout of income tax, because that is the single biggest job killer.  The aforementioned safety net is funded by the monetization of technological deflation which has to be done anyway.  

iv) There has to be a more favorable regulatory (and tax, as in 0% income tax) climate for entrepreneurship, because the elimination of jobs via technology is exactly proportional to the amount of free money that agile entrepreneurs that no longer have to hire humans to get certain work done, can make.  

Any job eliminated = the employer is pocketing that money, so become an employer positioned to capture all those savings at scale. 

 This is the first thing I tell all of my investment banking clients and all of my students at Stanford, in the hopes of getting the gears turning in their minds.  

Thanks,

-Kartik

From Curt Carlsson 

It is interesting that in America there is now more jobs than advertised than in the work force.  That should tell us something.  

As Jack Ma points out there are still 4B people left to be served so how bad could it be?

I have always looked at:

1.  Is there opportunity for new businesses (never been a better time)

2.  Are there unserved markets (most of the world of 7B people still poor)

3.  Can we create new innovations (entering a whole new generation of amazing technologies)

The issues are elsewhere — government, education, and immigration (we should aggressively be recruiting the super achievers).